Los Cabos Residential Real Estate Market Report

2026 Q3 Market Report

October 5, 2026

REPORT COMMENTARY

Q3 of 2026 delivered the typical Los Cabos market seasonal slowdown of summer and early-fall months, compounded by a pause at the very top of the market. Dollar volume totaled $133.2M USD across 178 units — the lowest-performing quarter since 2020 — down 68% and 36% respectively from Q2 ($409.8M, 279 units). The unit decline is in line with recent seasonal patterns while the steeper dollar decline reflects the absence of ultra-luxury activity: there were no sales over $10M this quarter, compared to 8 units totaling $141.6M in Q2.

The average selling price for all residential properties fell to $748,306 (-49.1% over Q2), with houses averaging $1,090,911 (-53.3%) and condos averaging $474,915 (-40.3%) — declines driven largely by mix-shift away from the large dollar transactions that inflated Q2. The condo median moved far more modestly ($346,356, -8.9%). Days on Market moved in opposite directions: houses lengthened to 173 days average (from 151 in Q2), while condos improved to 158 days (from 195), for 164 days overall (from 176). The Sale-to-List Price Ratio (SLPR) improved across the board, with houses at 92.5% (up from 88.3%), condos at 93.6% (up from 91.1%) and 93.2% overall (up from 89.9%).

Inventory declined for a second consecutive quarter to 1,945 active houses and condos (from 2,134), the lowest level since Q4 2024, with a total list value of $2.42B, down from $2.86B in Q2. This contraction was driven by seller attrition rather than buyer absorption: 286 listings expired against 178 sales. With 23 Months of Inventory (MOI) overall (22 for houses, 24 for condos) and a Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR) of 37% overall (38% houses, 37% condos), the market remains firmly in buyer’s market territory. 2026 YTD has recorded 1,295 price reductions on completed houses and condos, with 247 resulting in a sale — a 19% conversion rate, down from 34% in 2025. Price cuts alone are increasingly insufficient to move product and that sellers who do sell are recalibrating meaningfully.

The Two-Bedroom Condo segment posted 67 sales this quarter against 175 new listings for a 38% SNLR, and carries 22 MOI against 646 units of inventory. The segment remains in buyer’s market territory, though the 276 sales YTD already equal 88% of its 2025 total, outpacing the broader market.

LOS CABOS MARKET DIRECTION

Q3 2026 data show a market that is thinning rather than tightening. Inventory is contracting through expirations rather than sales. MOI remains at 23, and YTD medians are lower across all property types, keeping conditions tilted toward buyers. At the same time, an improved SLPR and a leaner, better-priced pool of active listings set up the potential for firmer conditions in the November-to-April high season — provided sellers who expired do not return at prior pricing. Pockets of strength remain in the $5M to $10M tier, where houses posted a 75% SNLR. The over $10M tier was quiet this quarter but has recorded 10 house sales over the past 12 months against 22 listings (26 MOI).

The $2M to $5M Mid-Luxury Segment weakened considerably from Q2: 7 sales totaling $21.2M compared to 26 sales and $81.8M last quarter. Houses in this segment posted an 18% SNLR with 26 MOI against 129 active listings and a year-to-date SLPR of 83.6%, while condos posted a 10% SNLR with 19 MOI against 52 listings, and 15 condo listings expired against a single sale.

NEW IN THIS REPORT

Expiration Attrition Ratio (ER). On page 21 is page for the Expiration Attrition Ratio, calculated as expired listings divided by sales in the period. Where MOI and the SNLR measure supply against demand, ER measures seller outcomes: how many listings leave the market unsold for every listing that sells. A rising ER signals that asking prices are out of step with what buyers are willing to pay, and it explains how inventory can fall without any improvement in sales — as happened this quarter. Below 25% indicates a seller’s market, 25% to 50% a balanced market, and above 50% a buyer’s market.

The Market Snapshot page now features colorful icons.

MARKET SNAPSHOT

MARKET SALES

MARKET METRICS

MARKET TRENDS

ABOUT THIS REPORT

This report is produced using BCS MLS Data. It is limited to the Los Cabos Municipality apart from overlaps on the East Cape and Pacific Zones. Around Los Cabos, there is also significant activity that happens off MLS. These tend to be significant high-end developments that have their own way of marketing. These developments include The Cove Club, Chileno Bay, El Dorado, Montage, Maravilla, and Costa Palmas. As a result, this report is not a complete view of all real estate activity in Los Cabos. This report also does not report on land sales. Land sales also took off recent years for both individual building lots and developer parcels.

All sales data in this report is based on the Under Contract Date. This is the date when the sale was consummated but not the date when the sale closed, and the title was transferred. Market reports published by other brokers and agents will typically use the Sold (or Closed) Date, which can be up to six months after the Under Contract Date. We feel using the Under Contract Date better represents market activity and timing. Consequently, prices and price volumes will not be entirely accurate until the closed date when the sold price is reported in MLS.

GLOSSARY

DOM (Days on Market) =
Pending/Closed Listing: Under Contract Date – Begin Date
Active Listing: Today’s Date – Begin Date

SLPR (Sale to List Price Ratio) =
Sold Price ÷ Original List Price x 100%

SNLR (Sale to New Listing Ratio) =
Sales (Units) in Period ÷ New Listings (Units) in Period x 100%

MOI (Months of Inventory) =
Listing Inventory (Units) ÷ Sales (Units) in past 12 months x 12

ER (Expiration/Attrition Ratio) =
Expired Listings (Units) ÷ Sales (Units) in Period x 100%

Los Cabos Residential Real Estate - Historical Reports