2022 Q4 Market Report

January 16, 2023

REPORT COMMENTARY

In Q4 the market warmed up some as physical inventory increased.  Despite low overall inventory the market closed out 2022 only slightly off from 2021’s record sales levels.  Units sold this year (2,023) was only 17 units lower than 2021.  Dollar volume this year ($1.473 Billion USD) was only $107m USD lower than 2021.   

The persistent low physical inventory seen throughout the year eased a bit in Q4.  By the end of Q4, overall inventory has risen to 1,098, from a low of 699 at the end of Q1.  Pre-construction inventory (618 units) on MLS continues to exceed physical inventory (480 units).

Existing properties are moving quickly – when they are priced right.  Please refer to the last page of this report for data on sales within Q4 that were listed in the quarter and sold before the quarter ended.  Existing properties that are not priced right or have something unique about them that requires the right buyer to come along are accumulating Days on Market and price reductions.  Please refer to the last page for notable price reductions for existing properties sold in Q4.

Properties that are priced to sell are having the shortest days on market. Aggressively priced properties have been experiencing price reductions after accumulating significant days on market.

LOS CABOS MARKET DIRECTION

Clients regularly ask about price direction in Los Cabos.   We continue to see demand remaining strong in Los Cabos and prices continuing to hold.  We are also seeing Pre-Construction listings driving prices in the market.  With limited physical inventory buyers are choosing to purchase Pre-Construction at prices much higher than we would expect.  New developments pop up on the Los Cabos MLS weekly and the MLS Board has implemented new processes to ensure their pre-construction listings come onto MLS in a structured & organized manner.  As competition mounts for Pre-Constructions buyers, we expect (hope) to see developers under cutting each other to make their sales goals.

NEW IN THIS REPORT

Existing vs Pre-Construction Sales – We have added historical sales data for 2021 and 2022 for condos and houses by price point divided for Pre-Construction and existing completed properties.  Pre-Construction has grown considerably and almost exceeded existing properties for Condos in 2022. Existing condos was $377m USD versus Pre-Construction condos of $362m USD.

Existing Properties Sales Statistics – Two new datasets looking at sales of existing properties including quick sales in the quarter and sales that had to accumulate DOM and go through price reduction(s) before going under contract.

ABOUT THIS REPORT

This report is produced using BCS MLS Data.  It is limited to the Los Cabos Municipality apart from overlaps on the East Cape and Pacific Zones.  Around Los Cabos there is also significant activity that happens off MLS.  These tend to be large high-end developments that have their own way of marketing.  These developments include The Cove Club, Chileno Bay, El Dorado, Montage, Maravilla and Costa Palmas.  As a result, this report is not a complete view of all real estate activity in Los Cabos.  This report also does not report on land sales.  Land sales also took off in the past two and a half years for both individual building lots and developer parcels.

All sales data in this report is based on the Under Contract Date.  This is the date when the sale was consummated but not the date when the sale closed, and title transferred.  Market reports published by other brokers and agents will typically used the Sold (or Closed) Date which can be up to six months after the Under Contract Date.  We feel using the Under Contract Date better represents market activity and timing.  Consequently, prices and price volumes will not be fully accurate until the closed date when the sold price is reported in MLS.  In our current market with properties selling with very little off from list, this difference is inconsequential.